🥩 Cattle at All-Time Highs: Short the Plate & Packer, Long the Rebuild

🔑 Executive Summary

• Live cattle have broken to all-time highs while market-ready supply remains tight.

• Packer spreads risk compression when boxed-beef (cutout) lags cash cattle.

• Beef-heavy restaurants see COGS pressure first, with pricing/mix relief lagging 1-3 quarters.

• We express the view with downside in TSN/TXRH/SHAK now and upside in ZTS/ELAN as the herd rebuild phase emerges.

• Clear triggers & kill-switches tie positions to cutout-cash dynamics, placements, and pricing locks.

Reference prices at publish (Aug 8, 2025):TSN $57.04; TXRH $172.84; SHAK $105.60; ZTS $147.35; ELAN $16.67.

CME Live Cattle (Oct ’25) 232.575¢/lb; 
USDA Choice boxed-beef (PM) $378.84/cwt; 
5-Area Live Steers $243.17/cwt.

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