📦 Trade Deal Tracker: Trump’s 2025 Tariff Doctrine and the New Global Chessboard
Tariffs, Truces, and the New Trade Empire: How Trump 2025 Is Redrawing the Global Map - One Deal at a Time
🔑 Executive Summary
Trump’s 2025 return didn’t just restart the tariff wars - it redefined the rules of global trade. In just six months, the administration has flipped U.S. trade strategy on its head: no more multilateral hand-wringing, no more passive deficit acceptance. Instead, the White House is wielding tariffs as a blunt instrument to force deals, secure industrial advantage, and remap supply chains.
This post kicks off the Trade Deal Tracker series - your macro-first lens on the new trade regime. We summarize every major agreement that Trump has signed, is negotiating, or could pursue in 2025. It’s not just about geopolitics - it’s about inflation, capex, critical minerals, and the shape of global capital flows. If the U.S. is weaponizing tariffs to build an industrial fortress, this series will map the blueprint.
✅ Confirmed Deals Signed in 2025
The Trump administration hasn’t just talked tough - it’s signed. These are the trade agreements already formalized under Trump 2025, marking the beginning of a new U.S.-centric trade regime built around tariffs, investment flows, and sector leverage.
US-EU Reciprocal Trade Framework
Finalized July 2025: EU eliminates all tariffs on U.S. industrial exports.
U.S. imposes a 15% tariff on most EU imports (autos, semis, pharma); 50% punitive rates remain on aluminum and steel.
EU commits to $750B in U.S. energy purchases and $600B in new investment into American industry.
Includes alignment on EV standards, pharma labeling, and rare earth stockpiles.
Macro lens: The most economically significant deal of the cycle - tilts trade and capital flows westward. Inflationary on EU goods, but long-term deflationary on U.S. manufacturing inputs and energy exports.
US-Japan Strategic Trade Deal
Finalized June 2025: 15% reciprocal tariff structure.
Japan expands U.S. access in autos, agriculture, and semiconductors.
Tokyo commits $550B in U.S.-bound investment, with 90% of profits retained in the U.S.
Establishes joint export controls on pharma and advanced chips.
Macro lens: Capital inflow + industrial re-anchoring. Supports U.S. tech, autos, and food exports while nudging Japan closer in security posture.
US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal
Signed in May 2025: 10% U.S. baseline tariff on UK goods.
UK eliminates tariffs on U.S. beef, dairy, ethanol, and industrial exports.
Auto exports capped at 100k units/year; above-quota volume faces 25%.
Customs harmonization, aerospace standards, and digital trade framework included.
Macro lens: Symbolic and strategic. Slight short-term CPI uptick on UK goods, but positive for U.S. exporters and nearshoring.
US-Vietnam Tariff Agreement (Pending Implementation)
Framework agreed: 20% U.S. tariff on Vietnamese goods (40% on flagged trans-shipments).
Vietnam grants zero tariffs on all U.S. goods; dispute emerged over last-minute enforcement clauses.
Final signing pending but terms publicly disclosed and functionally agreed upon.
Macro lens: Major lever in China+1 supply chain shift. Could raise import costs temporarily but strengthens sourcing security for U.S. industry.
US-Indonesia Reciprocal Trade Framework
Announced May 2025: 19% U.S. tariff on Indonesian goods; 99% of tariffs cut on U.S. exports.
Key mineral bans lifted (nickel, cobalt); $22B in energy, agriculture, aerospace deals included.
New labor and ESG requirements tied to compliance.
Macro lens: Unlocks key EV inputs. Supports energy transition, reshoring, and industrial input cost relief.
US-Philippines Free Trade Agreement
Fully ratified: All U.S. goods enter tariff-free; Philippine exports face a flat 19% tariff.
Philippines opens auto market, expands U.S. agri imports, and deepens security cooperation.
Included under broader Indo-Pacific military alliance framework.
Macro lens: Geostrategic deal with commercial upside. Modestly inflationary for U.S. consumers, but aligns with China containment strategy.
🤝 Active Negotiations (as of July 2025)
Several deals remain in play but not finalized, with Trump 2025 using tariffs as leverage to force terms. These negotiations reflect high-stakes diplomacy, supply chain jockeying, and geopolitical positioning - especially in Asia and the Global South.
US-South Korea Bilateral Deal
South Korea faces a looming 25% tariff hike if no deal is reached by August 1.
Seoul has offered expanded investment in U.S. shipbuilding, auto quotas, and joint defense procurement.
U.S. seeking tighter alignment on chip exports and data localization rules.
Macro lens: Semis, autos, and defense are at stake. South Korea is one of the few Asian partners with both scale and tech parity - outcome here is market-relevant.
US-India Trade Framework (Stalled but Active)
Negotiations continue but progress is slow due to agriculture, digital rules, and pharmaceutical IP issues.
Trump floated a 20–25% tariff threat if no deal is reached by Q4.
India is seeking partial access for textiles and generic drugs; U.S. wants lower tariffs on ag, solar, and tech.
Macro lens: India remains the largest untapped bilateral trade prize. A deal would support diversification from China but risks friction over sovereignty and standards.
US-China Tariff Truce Extension
May 2025 saw a fragile “tariff pause” after China throttled rare earth exports in retaliation.
Talks now center on extending that truce past September - with Biden-era tariffs still in place on ~$300B in Chinese goods.
Trump is seeking ironclad terms on chip equipment, rare earths, and agricultural quotas.
Macro lens: The most consequential negotiation globally - failure here risks a 100% tariff snapback and full economic decoupling. High inflation tail risk if truce fails.
Baseline Tariff Expansion (Global Notices)
USTR has sent tariff revision notices to over 150 countries.
Trump’s new default tariff is rising from 10% to 15–20% globally by September.
Some countries may negotiate exemptions or sector carve-outs; others face automatic hikes.
Macro lens: Broad-based structural inflation unless offset by dollar strength or domestic production. Sets the backdrop for all future deals.
🧭 Strategic Priorities and Openings (White Space Targets)
Not all deals are signed or in motion - yet. The Trump administration has clearly signaled additional priorities and pressure points, many of which reflect geopolitical alignment, reshoring objectives, or energy/materials security. These are the most economically relevant white spaces we’ll be tracking next.
Brazil / Mercosur
No formal negotiation underway, but Trump officials have repeatedly flagged Brazil as a key reshoring partner.
Focus would likely center on agriculture (soy, beef), metals, and rare earth diversification.
Tariffs on Brazilian exports remain high (steel at 50%+); U.S. is considering sectoral access tied to ESG rules and military cooperation.
Macro lens: Huge ag and resource upside if structure is resolved. Brazil is the crown jewel of South America in trade terms.
Sub-Saharan Africa (Post-AGOA Strategy)
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires in 2025. No successor deal yet proposed.
Trump’s team has hinted at a “new rules-based access program” focused on mineral rights, textiles, and defense logistics hubs.
Countries like Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa are seen as likely candidates for bilateral frameworks.
Macro lens: Supply chain optionality, cheap labor base, and minerals make Africa strategically critical - especially for China competition and global logistics hedging.
Mexico (USMCA Reopening)
Trump officials have hinted that USMCA could be reopened in 2026 as part of a “reset clause.”
Key concerns include auto labor provisions, energy disputes, and cross-border tariff enforcement.
While not a priority in 2025, negotiations may begin behind the scenes.
Macro lens: Massive nearshoring implications. Any USMCA revision would ripple across autos, manufacturing, and Texas-to-Canada rail trade.
CPTPP Reengagement (Unlikely but Possible)
Trump has repeatedly attacked the CPTPP, but some insiders have floated a U.S. “associate tier” or deal with CPTPP bloc countries individually (e.g., Malaysia, Chile, Singapore).
No talks are active, but diplomatic groundwork is being laid in Indo-Pacific summits.
Macro lens: Would offer multilateral efficiency, but contradicts Trump’s bilateral-first doctrine. Watch for signs of policy shift in 2026.
Turkey
Trump has privately suggested a realignment with Turkey in NATO and trade matters.
Turkish steel/aluminum face severe tariffs; Ankara is seeking relief in exchange for defense alignment.
No formal negotiation underway yet.
Macro lens: Could offer a Eurasian logistics hub and lower-cost manufacturing partner if realigned. Uncertain political optics.
🧵 Final Word
The global trade map isn’t static - it’s in motion, and the U.S. is redrawing it deal by deal. What’s unfolding under Trump 2025 is more than protectionism. It’s a structural shift in how the world allocates supply chains, capital, and strategic leverage.
At Potato Capital, we’ll be tracking every trade agreement with the lens that matters: macro impact, sector winners and losers, inflation pathways, and where capital flows next.
Follow this series to stay ahead of the tariff regime, supply chain realignment, and investment implications as they evolve - one deal at a time.